LOUIS VUITTON LIFE

1, A-share market cycles and economic cycles
since the end of 1990 the establishment of China's stock market has experienced three major cycles, that the bull market began in October 1991 - February 1993 peak to bear market - 1994 bear market ended 8; in January 1996 bull market to Start - peaked in June 2001 to bear market - 2005 bear market ended 6; June 2005 the bull market began - 2007 peaked into the bear market is currently running in this bear market phase of the cycle.
from a comparative analysis of the economic environment, in June 2005 began this round of the cycle and from October 1991 to August 1994 the cycle share a similar background to the fundamentals of . This two stock market cycles are basically consistent with the macroeconomic cycle, resulting in a resonance effect: The stock market performance is the bull market up too fierce, vicious bear market and then drop.
from the time of analysis, from October 1991 to August 1994 the cycle, from start to reach the top of the bull market finally turn into a bear market is basically the end of the time consistent with the macro-economic changes. But the bear market ended in August 1994 when it was the most difficult times our country's macroeconomic, when inflation up to 25%; in June 2005 began this round of the cycle, although the bull market peak and cattle turn bear the time and macroeconomic changes basically consistent with, but our starting point for this round of economic cycle is the second half of 2001, while the bear market has been just the last round from the beginning in June 2001, until June 2005 and ended, and then started this round of bull market, bull market began more than a macro later the economic cycle for four years. Can be seen, this CBBC two cycles is not entirely consistent with the macroeconomic performance. 1 Yue Zhi
1996 Nian Nian 6 months of 2005 the stock market cycle, with the other two cycles are different not only in line with macroeconomic trends, but the opposite . In early 1996, although the overheated economy under control, but subsequently our economy is another extreme, that is too cold, deflation. The stock market has relaxed credit policy early in 1996, up 23% + hedging the interest rate subsidy rate has continued to reduce the stimulation of a new bull market began. This wave of bull market ended in June 2001 and converted into a bear market. In fact, China's macro-economic boom cycle, the new one is in the second half of 2001 began.
2, A-share market of the time cycle
A-share market is highly speculative, capital-driven characteristic is very obvious, although the fundamentals affecting the stock price, but money-driven speculative forces than fundamental factors, so the bull market is always a very high price-earnings ratio can Chaodao the level of the market. For example this round of bull market, stocks rose almost six-fold, we believe that fundamental factors that can only support a maximum of two times, that this round of the bull market of less than 1 / 3 of the gains from the basic factors, there are more than 2 / 3 of the gains from the driven by speculative funds. For the funds to promote the main market trends within their markets are often greater than the impact of the role of fundamentals. The stock market is always a cycle to complete the chip from scattered, through the "fragmented - focus on - and then spread" process, while the form of a cycle, while in the performance of the cycle of symmetric feature, namely that time and bear market bull run run to basically the same.
the cyclical symmetry of China's stock market is very standard, and this symmetry is not affected by the fundamental law of the impact of the external environment, but low cycle is increasing. If the first round of the bear market ended in July 1994 when the macroeconomic environment in China is the worst time, when inflation as high as 25%. Another example is from 2001 to 2005 period of 6 months of bear market, our economy is in the early stages of a boom cycle, the economy has constantly getting better. According to China's stock market CBBC time symmetric laws can predict this round of the bear market to end until early 2010.
3, A-share market
for the cyclical nature of space, such as my immature market, a Great Quotes in the nature of the funds into the market tend to invest in the main start to the end, the main end of the speculative. Investors participating in the professional standards of the market was the first start from a higher level, with the rise and decline, and finally to the basic ordinary people do not understand the market. Thus, a bull market are mainly from the value-driven, and finally to fully fund the implementation process. For the money-driven market, the top is difficult to predict, and many factors will affect the short-term capital inflows, such as the prevailing economic environment, political environment, policy environment, international economic and political environment. However, while China's stock market bear market bottom, and mature markets, by value decision is based on long-term funds, professional investors hold up, it is a random walk. In China, rapid economic growth, determined the trend of China's stock market continued upward, constantly raise the low.
from the operation rules of view, each after one cycle, the low constantly raising, that is, the bottom after a bear market bottom is always higher than the previous one. The first cycle Shenzhen Composite Index from September 1991 to 45.66 points, through the sub-bear market bull market, bear market eventually fell 96.56 points, at the end of the bottom elevation 111.48%; the second cycle CBBC Shenzhen Composite Index from 1996 1 month of 105.34 points, through the sub-bear market bull market and eventually a bear market ended down 235.64 points, the bottom elevation 123.69%. According to the law of projection, taking into account prior to this round of the bear market is not facing the lifting pressure of the non-tradable shares, we expect this round of the bottom of the bear market will eventually raise the broader market of around 100%, corresponding to 450 near the Shenzhen Composite Index. At the present point position, but also dropped about 20%. Corresponding to 1600 points, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the Shanghai index to 1,650 points, so evidently there is a large drop in the future broad market space.